Reverse chronology

I turned 40 on Monday -- a personal milestone at a time of global anxiety. Even by post-9/11 standards, world news in the last several weeks has been grim, though the Lebanon ceasefire offers a lull of sorts. The larger storyline: heavily armed, rattled Western powers struggling to contain and defeat adversaries that elude them, with much destruction, death and anarchy caused in the process. It's a time of raised fears concerning not only present-day events but also the long-term perspective.

What did the world look like when I was 30, 20 and 10? Let's recollect...

30

I find it harder to conjure up the mood of 1996 than that of 1986 or even 1976, perhaps because the shift since has been so dramatic. I celebrated my 30th birthday at a time of prosperity in the US, thanks to the IT boom and the "Goldilocks economy." Globally, the end of the Cold War had seemed about to usher in a new epoch dominated by trade and democratization, presided over benignly by a more or less united West. The interventions in Bosnia and Kuwait lent credence to the idea of America as global peacekeeper. They also convinced many Americans that wars could be waged easily, without large numbers of US casualties. The morass of Vietnam had seemingly been left far behind. The president was intelligent, charismatic and politically skillful; centrism ruled the day. The fear level was low.

Of the global news stories that year, some would turn out to have particular long-term significance. UN inspections, and obstruction of same, took place in Iraq. Kabul fell to the Taliban. Alan Greenspan warned of "irrational exuberance". Osama bin Laden issued a "Declaration of Jihad on the Americans Occupying the Country of the Two Sacred Places".

Defying the powers of trade and democracy, the Middle East crisis remained unsolved. Israel shelled a UN compound at Qana in southern Lebanon, killing 106 civilians. Various terrorist attacks occurred during the year: a truck bombing in Sri Lanka, the Manchester City Centre bombing, the Atlanta Olympics bombing, the Ethiopian airliner hijacking.

20

Rewind to 1986, skipping right past the tectonic changes of 1989-1991. If, back then, we had somehow got access to today's maps, most of us wouldn't have believed our eyes. In 1986, there was still "the West" and "the Soviet bloc", NATO and the Warsaw Pact. There was a country named Yugoslavia, prosperous by socialist-country standards, popular with tourists and thought to have fairly bright prospects. The main development on the world stage was perestroika: a young (54), energetic reformist had taken the helm in Moscow and seemed ready to introduce something resembling "socialism with a human face". The fear level was declining, and optimism rising.

Looking over the news events of that year, though, most had little staying power. They belonged to an era which would soon end. Gorbachev, the man of the moment, did not remain
long on the scene; the changes he set into motion soon swept him into the archives. One event that does have resonance today is the Challenger disaster; the space shuttle program survived into the current decade, and so did many of the problems first noted in 1986. The Chernobyl disaster in April also had long-term effects -- on the environment, on attitudes about nuclear power, and on interest in alternative energy.

The Middle East crisis continued. A series of killings (a Palestinian girl shot in the back, an Israeli salesman stabbed to death) lit the fuse for the major uprising dubbed the First Intifada. Terrorism during the year included the hijacking of a Pan Am flight by the Abu Nidal organization and the bombing of a West Berlin disco popular among US soldiers. The US bombed Libya in retaliation.

10

In 1976, the globe was still firmly, and seemingly permanently, trifurcated: West, Iron Curtain and Third World. This was the reality taught to us in school, and what I learned from the news. The long, evolving narrative of the Cold War gave a shape to events that is less present today -- most of what happened was seen with reference to this narrative. World leaders appeared, to a ten year old, to be protagonists in a stage play -- to have that sort of gravitas. Maybe that's how things always look to a ten year old, though.

Fear levels were high, though not what they are today. The US and the Soviet Union had entered a period of "normalization", in which the two blocs left off calling for each other's extinction and spoke, instead, about co-existence. Nevertheless, kids my age worried about nuclear war, believing it was a real and even likely prospect.

The year 1976 saw many noteworthy events, most of which now qualify as ancient history. Mao died, as did Mayor Daley. The Soweto riots foreshadowed the end of apartheid. The Concorde was launched, and the Ramones released their first album. Carter beat Ford. Cambodia lurched towards atrocity. Harold Wilson resigned, and the UK began direct rule in Northern Ireland.

And look at this: Apple Corporation was founded on April 1. (Microsoft got its start the previous year).

The Middle East crisis continued. In January, the Security Council voted 11-1, with three abstentions, to admit the PLO to the United Nations. My country cast the opposing vote. Australia, Britain and Denmark abstained. Terrorist acts during the year included IRA bombings, seizure of an Air France plane by Palestinians, and bombing of a Cuban jet liner by anti-Castro Cubans.

And so...

I guess if one good thing could be said about the Middle East crisis, it's that a sense of continuity lingers across three otherwise varied decades. Terrorism is also a constant of sorts, though shifting in relation to particular conflicts. Otherwise, I can see there has been a succession of historical moments during my lifetime, each with its attendant mentalities. I missed the peak of the Cold War, when the paranoia level must have been similar to today's, and my childhood coincided with a gradual easing of fears. After that came the euphoria of 1989, followed by a decade of faith in economics. Then another catalyzing event, and a shift to militarism. The latest phase seems to have exhausted itself, but it's not yet clear what comes after.